A very strong El Niño is building: what it means for South Africa's summer

SA Weather Reports analysis - 10 November 2026

In the Pacific Ocean, a very strong El Niño is still building - one the World Meteorological Organization calls "off the charts". Here is our reading of what it means for South Africa's summer - and, just as importantly, what it doesn't mean.

What El Niño is, in plain terms

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that returns every few years. The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean warms far more than usual, and that warm water shifts wind and rainfall patterns around the world. For southern Africa, a strong El Niño typically tilts the odds towards a hotter, drier summer - especially over the interior, where most of our summer rain falls.

How strong is this one?

Strong, and still strengthening. Three independent readings worth knowing:

• The South African Weather Service (SAWS) said on 1 September that the event is likely to intensify into "the strongest event in living memory". In its 31 October Seasonal Climate Watch, SAWS measured the key Pacific monitoring region at about 3.0 °C warmer than normal (ERA5 28-day average to early October) and expects the event to persist through much of our summer.
• The US NOAA Climate Prediction Center said on 8 October that a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January to March, and put the chance of this event reaching historic strength - a mark exceeded only a handful of times since 1950 - at over 80% for the October-to-December period. Its next update is due on 12 November.
• The World Meteorological Organization, in its State of the Climate Update released on 9 November, called this El Niño "off the charts" and "different from any El Niño that we have monitored".

One caution on numbers: you may see different temperature figures in the news. They come from different datasets and time windows, so we quote each one with its source rather than blending them.

What the seasonal outlook says for South Africa

The SAWS outlook for November to March favours below-normal rainfall across large parts of the summer-rainfall region, especially the interior and the north-eastern half of the country. At the same time, both daytime and night-time temperatures are expected to be above normal over most of South Africa through the season. In short: the odds favour a hotter summer with less rain than usual in the regions that normally rely on it most.

Why that is not a drought guarantee

This part matters as much as the forecast itself. Seasonal outlooks describe probabilities, not certainties - and three facts keep us honest:

1. September was exceptionally wet across much of the country - Vox Weather counted an unusual run of cut-off low pressure systems, and many areas recorded several times their normal September rainfall.
2. Where that rain fell, soils went into summer in better shape than a dry spring would have left them. Analysts at Vox Weather assessed soil moisture ahead of this season as more favourable than at the start of the strong 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño summers. That is a head start, not a guarantee - reserves can run down quickly in a long, hot dry spell.
3. El Niño does not switch the rain off. The very strong 1997/98 event actually brought slightly above-normal rain to parts of South Africa. Individual weather systems can and do deliver heavy falls even in dry-leaning seasons.

What we would keep in mind

For households: use water wisely and know the signs of heat exhaustion for family members who work or play outdoors - hot days and unusually warm nights are the most consistent part of this outlook.

For gardeners and small-scale growers: where the spring rain fell, that soil moisture is an asset - protect it. Mulch, water in the cooler parts of the day, and favour established, drought-tough plants for new planting.

For farmers: the wet spring gives many areas a better start, but January and February look like the decisive months. Long dry spells during flowering and grain filling do more damage than a modest seasonal total, so the timing of rain matters as much as the amount.

What we'll be doing

We track conditions town by town on this website - live forecasts plus the SWR Smart Outlook for your area, updated automatically around the clock. For the bigger climate picture, the sources to watch are the official ones: NOAA's next El Niño update lands on 12 November, and SAWS updates its seasonal outlook monthly.

SA Weather Reports publishes its own analysis and advice based on the sources listed below. This is not an official weather warning service - official severe weather warnings are issued only by the South African Weather Service at weathersa.co.za.

Sources:
· SAWS Seasonal Climate Watch, Nov 2026-Mar 2027 (issued 31 October 2026)
· SAWS media statement on the 2026/27 El Niño (1 September 2026)
· NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (8 October 2026; page updates with the 12 November edition)
· WMO State of the Climate Update 2026 press statement (9 November 2026)
· Vox Weather: SA's Summer 2026/27 Outlook (19 October 2026) - September rainfall and soil moisture analysis